Just a couple of days to go now until the “Greatest Show on Earth” begins at Cheltenham. The absolute highlight of the racing calendar for me and the event that really got me vested in Racing. I’d dabbled before in a bit of racing and been on course for a birthday, but even without actually going, the first day of the festival in 2006 got me hooked.
I settled down for a pint or two of the black stuff in the back room of the Cedars having made some selections for the afternoon ahead and by about ten past two I was in dreamland. Beer, great sport, good company and my first winner at the festival. Noland charged up the hill with me cheering him home in the Novices Hurdle with Ruby in the Plate for Paul Nicholls. Fantastic!
I ended up not turning a profit for the week, having made the novicey error of thinking that with one winner under my belt, I was betting with someone else’s money. Not so, I’d picked the winner and therefore it was my money. I’ve since learned from The Master that a staking plan is very important. I will now not deviate from it.
I’ve set aside a separate bank for Cheltenham and I make all my selections in the morning or even the night before - I do not want to be swayed by the conversations that abound in the pub - “my mate knows a cousin of Willie Mullin’s stable lad’s wife, and he swears that………”. It’s easy to get carried away. Deviation from the staking plan will see you end the week with a lower bank than if you’d been disciplined enough to stick to it.
All the Fesitval trainers come to the course with the hopes and dreams of their owners and their own dreams intact. Everyone wants the same thing, but only one horse can win each race, so you have to find angles and use your judgement to try and eke as much profit as you can. If you aren’t sure, don’t bet - even a £2 win bet will cost you money if your selection fails you - and that’s £2 you’ve wasted.
Opportunities to lay horses at Cheltenham are few and far between. With big fields and highly competitive racing, the short priced horses are very special sorts indeed.
Master Minded is a case in point - his performance at the Fesitval last year left veterans of the Festival purring with how good it was. Just take a look for yourself: Master Minded @ Cheltenham 2008. On the bridle until the last half a furlong, he made some really good horses look very ordinary indeed.
You need to be pretty special to have a price on Betfair of 4/11 at Festival and there’s no reason to believe this isn’t a penalty kick for him. Petit Robin is probably the value of the each way prices, but I’m deliberately going to keep my powder dry until the night before each day. Other well known short priced sorts are Binocular, Cousin Vinny, Voy Pur Estedes (famously beaten by Master Minded last year), Kasbah Bliss and of course 2007 winner, Kauto Star. The Gold Cup is always the prize to go for and it’s unbelievable to think that last year’s winner, Denman, is as big a price as 6-1. Harry Findlay, the co-owner of “The Tank” has been talking down his chances and given he’s had some fitness problems, this might seem a sensible price. That said, I can’t believe he won’t go there as fit as he can be and I for one will be watching closely for comments from Harry over the Festival. At 6-1 he could be the steal of the whole show!
I will be blogging every day over the Festival and will try and keep you all abreast of where I’m at and my thinking before each day.
Don’t forget that there will be some flat racing this week as well and your efforts should not be concentrated solely on what’s going on a Prestbury Park. The Master picked up a placepot worth around 90-1 for us last year on the opening day of the Festival, so whilst the majority of the Racing World will concentrate on the best National Hunt Racing there is, The Master will be beavering away in Whylay Towers to find more great value lays - if your Cheltenham dreams don’t work out, The Master is sure to help you to pick up the pieces.
