Pop-quiz. What do the following horses have in common: Kauto Star, Franchoek, Noland, Ashkazar and Sizing Europe? All were beaten at prices of 2-1 or lower at the 2008 Festival. I couldn’t believe this stat when I first read it and I had to look twice, but it is true. I mentioned in yesterday’s blog that most of the short priced sorts look on the face of it to be priced that way for a reason. So I’ve started to look at the two shorties for tomorrow’s card, Cousin Vinny and Binocular.
I looked at the Betfair market for Cousin Vinny just to see where he was at and he was just outside my ceiling lay price of 5/2, so I immediately discounted him. Binocular however is more interesting.
Since JP McManus brought him over from France, he’s come home in front on every one of his starts bar one - his defeat in the Novices Hurdle last year. So this got me thinking, are all his wins on flat-ish tracks with decent-ish ground. Yes is the answer (although you could argue Ascot is tricky, but nowhere near the test that Cheltenham is). As I read earlier on betfair’s excellent blog site, the time the Novices Hurdle is completed in will have a bearing on how good the ground actually is and whether it’s more soft than good.
Much like Franchoek was last year, Binocular has been a talking horse all year long. His price is therefore, in my opinion, lower than it should be and therefore the rest of the field are overpriced. Celestial Halo and Osana are bigger than they should be. Whiteoak, a favourite of mine after her win at 20/1 for me last year is still improving and looks a steal at 16/1.
Celestial Halo was well beaten by Binocular the last time they met, but the tactical nature of tomorrow’s race will be much different and I think the places may well be reversed.
My biggest bet of tomorrow therefore will be my lay of Binocular. Rain is forecast and although I have already got some money matched at 2.9, I will see how the ground rides in the Supreme Novices. If it rides slow (>4minutes), I’ll probably go back in for more.
